In early August, with our Republican analysis of the POLITICO-George Washington University  Battleground Poll, we wrote “… this election will remain close until the final  weeks of the campaign.  There will be ups and downs for both campaigns  throughout the next 13 weeks, but the basic dynamics that are driving this  electorate and framing this election remain well in place.”   Two  conventions, and tens of millions of campaign dollars later, we continue to hold  that belief.  While there have been dozens of polls released during the  past six weeks that have had Mitt Romney up by as much as 4 points and Barack  Obama up by as much 8 or 9, those variations have had more to do with sampling  variations than with real movement in the campaign.

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