SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Gov. Jerry Brown and California lawmakers struck an upbeat tone in recent weeks as they enjoyed their most positive budget outlook since the economic downturn.

Whether that mood survives the winter depends on Washington.

State budget experts say the biggest immediate threat to California finances is a recession triggered by automatic federal cuts and tax hikes, absent a political deal to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff."

The state's biggest federal program, Medi-Cal, is spared from automatic cuts. But a new recession could threaten the state tax revenue that serves as the lifeblood for California government.

"A lot of it relies on confidence, and I think that one of the things that makes this especially hard to predict is we can't really know how businesses and consumers will respond," said Jason Sisney, the chief forecaster at the Legislative Analyst's Office.

In November, the LAO predicted a relatively small $1.9 billion state budget deficit through June 2014, followed by surpluses in years thereafter.

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